![]() –FRIDAY–
AAIE's COVID-19 BRIEFING #140 Data and Ideas to Support Your Crisis Leadership
November 20, 2020
–TODAY's BRIEFING HIGHLIGHTS–
–TODAY's QUOTES– Another Important Reminder from Rob and Michael
"One of the challenges to balance is between listening attentively, being empathetic, considerate and trying to understand another’s situation but being clear about what is not negotiable. What educators at all levels want to do is use these events as teachable moments. It’s helpful to get people to tell you what they hope or wish you’d do and what their fears are if you don’t, or can’t or won’t in some way. Persuasion of someone with an emotional investment in why they want you to do what they want is really hard. If you can be collectively upfront with people, it may make it easier." –Clinical Psychologists, Michael G. Thompson and Rob Evans
There is no excuse for inaction. My message is very clear: act fast, act now, act decisively. A laissez-faire attitude to the virus – not using the full range of tools available – leads to death, suffering and hurts livelihoods and economies. It’s not a choice between lives or livelihoods. The quickest way to open up economies is to defeat the virus. –Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus
–NEXT WEEK's CONVERSATION– with International School Leaders from Around the World THURSDAY November 26 8:00AM EST OUR WEEKLY CONVERSATION SCHOOL HEADS AND SENIOR LEADERS AROUND THE WORLD #39 – hosted by Will Richardson WE KNOW THAT AMERICAN THANKSGIVING TAKES PLACE ON THE SAME DAY, AS OUR THURSDAY GLOBAL CONVERSATION. Yet, many of our schools are in session– and so AAIE needs to be online in support too! Join our weekly CONVERSATION between School Heads and Senior Leaders. Our discussions continue to be contemporary, important and a time we teach each other. Thanks to Will Richardson who has facilitated each Thursday since the very beginning.
EACH FRIDAY (resumes on December 4)
THE NEW SCHOOL PROJECT CONVERSATIONS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY, DECEMBER 4 – hosted by sherpas Will Richardson, Homa Tavangar, Kevin Bartlett REPORT OF TODAY'S GROUP WORK Today we began unpacking New School Principle 3: Learning. This was somewhat out of sequence but, hey, we never laid any claims to linearity! The Principle reads:
" We ensure dynamic, engaging, impactful, and joyful learning experiences owned and driven by learners"
Every 'Week One' session, as we address a new Principle, is focussed on making personal meaning of the statement. Today, as a lead-in to our reflections and discussions, we re-affirmed the key idea of co-creating in our schools a simple, shared definition of the learning process so that it can drive the teaching process. Hard to ensure learning experiences if we haven't agreed on what learning is.
We then unpacked the concepts embedded in our Principle, contrasting 'dynamic' learning with static learning and looking at research on what makes learning 'engaging'. We felt that it was critical to understand the nature of learning impacts before we could claim to ensure 'impactful learning', and, for this we dipped into Leading Modern Learning, by Jay McTighe and Greg Curtis, for their powerful insights into Impacts, Outputs and Inputs...what they are, how they differ, how they complement each other.
We then focussed on what 'joyful' meant in this context and shared research on human happiness from the University of Cambridge, UK. To paraphrase, they emphasized four compelling factors:
This felt very affirming as there are so many connections to all of our own work in mapping out our New School Principles.
In our small group break-outs, another affirming insight was that these AAIE conversations, and, perhaps especially, the small group discussions, are themselves an exemplary model of the Learning Principle. They are anything but static, we find them deeply engaging, the learning has real impact on our work, we own and drive them ourselves, and the resulting epiphanies bring us a dopamine dose that feels distinctly joyful! I t's great when our practices reflect our Principles!
To share the joy, join our next conversation, taking place at 8:00AM EST- December 4, 2020
Who Should Get the Vaccine First? ![]()
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Decision time: Vaccine supply will be limited at first, so the decisions about who gets those first doses could save tens of thousands of lives. Mathematicians are modeling the optimal rollout.
The dilemma: Because Covid-19 is especially lethal for those over 65 and those with other health problems, and yet is spread rapidly and widely by healthy young adults who are more likely to recover, mathematicians are faced with two conflicting priorities: Should they prevent deaths or slow transmission? "One recent study modeled how covid-19 is likely to spread in six countries—the US, India, Spain, Zimbabwe, Brazil, and Belgium—and concluded that if the primary goal is to reduce mortality rates, adults over 60 should be prioritized for direct vaccination." No Rest: The consensus is that if the main goal is to slash mortality rates, officials must prioritize vaccinating those who are older, and if they want to slow transmission, they must target younger adults. But there are other considerations, too, such as Covid-19’s outsized impact on minorities—especially Black and Latino communities. “Almost no matter what, you get the same answer,” says Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch. Vaccinate the elderly first to prevent deaths, he says, and then move on to other, healthier groups or the general population.
–TODAY's POEM TO CONSIDER–
A poem, just for you ... (thanks yet again to Bob Hetzel)
Clearing After Snow Over Mountains and River
After a night of restless sleep, Wang Wei prepares his brushes and waits for the day
to begin. Not a sound. Not a breath of wind. the mist rising from his pond will thin
and he will see the heavy snow that fell on the peaks and silence the temple’s bell,
but for now he sits without a thought waiting for what will appear and what will not. –by Tom Sexton
Again, A Strong Message from the WHO's Director General ![]() Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus ![]()
"This is a dangerous virus, which can attack every system in the body. Those countries that are letting the virus run unchecked are playing with fire."
We’ve seen that those countries which invested in case finding, care and isolation, cluster investigations, adequate testing with rapid results, contact tracing and supported quarantine are facing much less disruption.
Cluster investigations and contract tracing are part of the bedrock of a successful public health response. These actions help prevent individual cases from becoming clusters, and clusters turning into community transmission.
During recent Ebola outbreaks, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and WHO have invested in people and trained up a sizable number of contact tracers who work closely with local leaders and communities. And in just two days, in part down to active case finding and contact tracing, they will be able - I hope - to call an end to the most recent Ebola outbreak.
As countries take extreme measures to curb the rapid spread of COVID-19, now is the time to invest in the systems that will prevent further waves of the virus.
Invest in a well trained and protected public health work force so that you have enough contact tracers in place and ensure that those who are sick can isolate away from others and contacts are identified, notified and managed properly. And where cases are starting to come down, keep investing so that you’re prepared.
This is a dangerous virus, which can attack every system in the body. Those countries that are letting the virus run unchecked are playing with fire.
First, there will be further needless deaths and suffering. Second, as we featured two weeks ago in a press conference, we are seeing a significant number of people experiencing long-term effects of the virus. Third, health workers in particular are facing extreme mental health pressure and cases are severely burdening health systems in too many countries. Health workers went into medicine to save lives as you know. We must avoid putting them into situation where they have to make impossible choices about who gets care and who doesn’t.
We need to do everything we can to support health workers, keep schools open, protect the vulnerable and safeguard the economy.
From calling up students, volunteers and even national guards to support the health response in times of crisis, to putting strict measures in place that allow pressure to be removed from the health system.
There is no excuse for inaction. My message is very clear: act fast, act now, act decisively. A laissez-faire attitude to the virus – not using the full range of tools available – leads to death, suffering and hurts livelihoods and economies.
It’s not a choice between lives or livelihoods. The quickest way to open up economies is to defeat the virus. STAY FOCUSED ON THE COVID-19 SCIENCE
FROM The Atlantic The End of the Pandemic Is Now in Sight A year of scientific uncertainty is over. Two vaccines look like they will work, and more should follow.
For all that scientists have done to tame the biological world, there are still things that lie outside the realm of human knowledge. The coronavirus was one such alarming reminder, when it emerged with murky origins in late 2019 and found naive, unwitting hosts in the human body. Even as science began to unravel many of the virus’s mysteries—how it spreads, how it tricks its way into cells, how it kills—a fundamental unknown about vaccines hung over the pandemic and our collective human fate: Vaccines can stop many, but not all, viruses. Could they stop this one?
The answer, we now know, is yes. A resounding yes. Pfizer and Moderna have separately released preliminary data that suggest their vaccines are both more than 90 percent effective, far more than many scientists expected.
![]() FROM Scientific American Evaluating COVID Risk on Planes, Trains and Automobiles With COVID-19 reaching the most dangerous levels the U.S. has seen since the pandemic began, the country faces a problematic holiday season. Despite the risk, many people are likely to travel using various forms of transportation that will inevitably put them in relatively close contact with others. Many transit companies have established frequent cleaning routines, but evidence suggests that airborne transmission of the novel coronavirus poses a greater danger than surfaces. The virus is thought to be spread primarily by small droplets, called aerosols, that hang in the air and larger droplets that fall to the ground within six feet or so. Although no mode of public transportation is completely safe, there are some concrete ways to reduce risk, whether on an airplane, train or bus—or even in a shared car.
–THE NEWS of COVID-19– 57,343,535 Cases Worldwide (Johns Hopkins CSSE) The German appeal to youth: Do your duty during COVID-19, become a couch potato!
Pfizer Takes the Next Step Pfizer Inc. said it will ask health regulators to authorize its experimental Covid-19 vaccine later today, after reporting the shot was 95% effective in its pivotal study and showed signs of being safe. The company’s plans, announced yesterday, mean the shot is on track to go into distribution by the end of the year, if the regulators permit. (The Wall Street Journal)
Immune Response for Those Over 70 Scientists developing a Covid vaccine at the University of Oxford said this morning that their jab had produced a robust immune response in people over the age of 70. The results, published in The Lancet, will go some way to easing concerns that vaccines will not work in older people, whose immune systems tend to be less robust. It comes after two other vaccines, from Pfizer/Biontech and Moderna, were each shown to be more than 90 per cent effective in preventing symptomatic Covid. However, there are still no guarantees the Oxford vaccine will offer protection in the real world, with results from a final trial expected in the coming weeks. (Times of London, The Lancet)
Questions Remain About Chinese Vaccine A leading Covid-19 vaccine under development in China showed inconclusive results about its level of protection, although scientists remain optimistic that the candidate can be among a roster of effective vaccines used to fight the pandemic. In early-stage clinical trials, Sinovac Biotechs CoronaVac vaccine was shown to induce antibodies in the human body within 28 days of the first immunization, according to results published in the Lancet medical journal this week. The level of antibodies, however, were lower than that seen in people who were previously infected with Covid-19. (The Wall Street Journal)
Hospital Patient Numbers Double Across the USA The number of people in the hospital with COVID-19 in the U.S. has doubled in the past month and set new records every day this week. As of Tuesday, nearly 77,000 were hospitalized with the virus. Newly confirmed infections per day in the U.S. have exploded more than 80% over the past two weeks to the highest levels on record, with the daily count running at close to 160,000 on average. Cases are on the rise in all 50 states. Deaths are averaging more than 1,155 per day, the highest in months. (The Associated Press)
Shortage of Medical Professionals in the USA Hospitals in at least 25 states are critically short of nurses, doctors, and other staff as coronavirus cases surge across the United States, according to the industry’s trade association and a tally conducted by STAT. The situation has gotten so bad that in some places, severely ill patients have been transferred hundreds of miles for an available bed — from Texas to Arizona, and from central Missouri to Iowa. Many of these hospitals spent months building up stockpiles of medical equipment and protective gear in response to Covid-19, but the supplies are of little use without adequate staffing. (STAT News)
Russia Matches France with 2,000,000+ Infections The number of Covid-19 infections in Russia surpassed 2 million, pushing the country’s hospital system to the brink amid a record amount of new daily cases. There were 23,610 new coronavirus cases in the last day, with 463 deaths, both records since the start of the epidemic, the government’s virus response center said Thursday. Russia has the fifth-most cases globally, after the U.S., Brazil, India and France. (Bloomberg News)
Ongoing Cleaning of Surfaces is Questioned All over the world, workers are soaping, wiping and fumigating surfaces with an urgent sense of purpose: to fight the coronavirus. But scientists increasingly say that there is little to no evidence that contaminated surfaces can spread the virus. In crowded indoor spaces like airports, they say, the virus that is exhaled by infected people and that lingers in the air is a much greater threat. (The New York Times)
USA Keeps Setting Records- Ten Days Running The U.S. logged its highest number of newly reported Covid-19 infections in a day and reported record hospitalizations for the 10th day in a row, as the coronavirus pandemic surges through the country. The U.S. reported 187,833 new cases for Thursday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, exceeding its last daily record by more than 10,000. That record was set last Friday, when the U.S. reported 177,224 new cases. There were 80,698 people hospitalized with the disease as of Thursday, according to the Covid Tracking Project, crossing the 80,000 mark for the first time just nine days after first passing 60,000. The U.S. has set records for hospitalizations each day since Nov. 10, according to the project’s data. (The Wall Street Journal)
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention yesterday strongly urged Americans not to travel for Thanksgiving, in one of its sharpest warnings to date, as an official said the agency is alarmed by the exponential growth in Covid-19 cases, as well as rising hospitalizations and deaths. With the pandemic in its 11th month in the U.S., many families are grappling with whether to meet up with friends or family for traditional celebrations. About 50 million Americans are expected to travel in the coming days, which is traditionally the busiest travel period of the year. But the holiday comes at a particularly precarious time in the current virus surge, and doctors and government officials say even gathering with one other household is too much of a risk. (The Wall Street Journal)
Californians are Off the Streets from 10:00PM-5:00AM Gov. Gavin Newsom has announced a mandatory overnight stay-at-home order that will be instituted throughout most of California to combat a surge in new coronavirus cases, a measure that comes just days after the governor enacted a dramatic rollback of reopening in much of the state. The order issued by the California Department of Public Health will prohibit most nonessential activity outside the home from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. in counties in the strictest tier of the state’s reopening road map — the purple tier. The restriction goes into place on Saturday and lasts through Dec. 21, though it could be extended. (The Los Angeles Times)
Coronavirus Infections Easing in Europe Europe’s painful second coronavirus wave may be starting to ease, a top World Health Organization official said Thursday, though its toll continues to be staggering, with someone on the continent dying every 17 seconds from the virus this past week. The cautious assessment came after new diagnoses of the novel coronavirus slowed across Europe to 1.8 million cases, compared with 2 million the week before. Some of the worst-hit countries — including Belgium, France and the Czech Republic — have seen significant declines, while in Germany and elsewhere the curve is just beginning to bend. But hospitals remain packed, and deaths across the WHO’s 51-nation European region have been rising. (The Washington Post)
Wuhan Not the Source? All available evidence indicates that the coronavirus, which has sickened more than 56 million people worldwide, may have first been identified in the central Chinese city of Wuhan but did not start there, according to one of the country’s leading scientists. “Wuhan was where the coronavirus was first detected but it was not where it originated,” Zeng Guang, former chief epidemiologist of the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), told an online academic conference on Thursday. Mr. Zeng is the second senior Chinese epidemiologist who has weighed in on the controversial topic in recent weeks. (South China Morning Post)
In Hunt for Virus Source, W.H.O. Let China Take Charge Nine months and more than 1.1 million deaths later, there is still no transparent, independent investigation into the source of the virus. Notoriously allergic to outside scrutiny, China has impeded the effort, while leaders of the World Health Organization, if privately frustrated, have largely ceded control.
From the earliest days of the outbreak, the World Health Organization — the only public health body with a global remit — has been both indispensable and impotent. The Geneva-based agency has delivered key information about testing, treatment and vaccine science. When the Trump administration decided to develop its own test kits, rather than rely on the W.H.O. blueprint, the botched result led to delays.
At the same time, the health organization pushed misleading and contradictory information about the risk of spread from symptomless carriers. Its experts were slow to accept that the virus could be airborne. Top health officials encouraged travel as usual, advice that was based on politics and economics, not science.
The W.H.O.’s staunchest defenders note that, by the nature of its constitution, it is beholden to the countries that finance it. And it is hardly the only international body bending to China’s might. But even many of its supporters have been frustrated by the organization’s secrecy, its public praise for China and its quiet concessions. Those decisions have indirectly helped Beijing to whitewash its early failures in handling the outbreak.
Now, as a new Covid-19 wave engulfs Europe and the United States, the organization is in the middle of a geopolitical standoff. China’s authoritarian leaders want to constrain the organization; and European leaders are scrambling to reform and empower it. The search for the virus’s origins is a study in the compromises the W.H.O. has made. READ THE FULL ARTICLE HERE (New York Times)
What's the Situation as Cases Spike in South Korea and Japan? Japan has seen a spike in the number of new infections this month, hitting 2,371 on Thursday and an almost fourfold increase on the month.
South Korea reported 363 cases on Friday, marking a new three-month high, though it is well below the February peak of 813. Health authorities warned that the world is facing a crisis that shows no signs of abating. They added that South Korea is not exempt from the problems. Infections are also rising in other Asia-Pacific countries. China reported 17 new cases for Thursday, up from 12 a day earlier. India reported 45,576 on Thursday in the last 24 hours -- up from 38,617 the previous day and bringing the country total to 8.96 million. On Wednesday, South Australia Premier Steven Marshall announced a six-day lockdown to stamp out an outbreak.
Why the upsurge in infections?
So-called lockdown fatigue is a key factor. After nine months of social distancing, people are itching for social interaction, despite government warnings.
Take Hokkaido, Japan's northernmost prefecture. Its capital, Sapporo, has a vibrant nightlife with many pubs, nightclubs and other attractions, all of which have started to come alive again after initial lockdowns. The city's entertainment district, along with the area's seafood and scenery, are huge tourist draws. The ubiquitous hostess clubs in the district, whose clients mainly comprise men in their 20s and 30s, have seen an uptick in business. Since masks tend to get in the way of face-to-face business, they are usually not worn. Hence, clusters can appear after unmasked clients return home, unwittingly spreading a nightlife-contracted virus to family members and office colleagues.
Authorities are asking that bars and restaurants keep doors and windows open or properly ventilate their premises. But clubs stay open until late into the night when temperatures drop, making this unfeasible. "The coronavirus is more difficult to deal with than influenza because some people stay asymptomatic. They spread the virus without people around them noticing it," said Kazuhiro Tateda, Toho University professor and chairman of the Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases.
Cold winters also play a part. Researchers have found that the coronavirus remains active for longer at cooler temperatures, increasing the risk of people breathing in droplets or touching infected surfaces. People also tend to stay indoors, where air is not well ventilated. Air also tends to be dry in winter, drying out the mucous membranes of the body's airways -- the first line of defense against the virus -- making people more susceptible to infection.
China, despite being in the same climate zone as Japan and South Korea, has avoided a major outbreak since February, as stringent controls are in place to quickly stamp out infections: When an outbreak occurs, the area goes into lockdown.The government, which tracks the movement of citizens, will isolate anyone who may have come into contact with infected people. Quarantine is strictly enforced so there is far less chance of infected people spreading the virus. (Nikkei Asia)
–The STATS–
TODAY's TOTAL GLOBAL CASES:
Johns Hopkins– 57,343,535
WHO–56,623,643
TOTAL GLOBAL DEATHS (WHO):
Today–1,355,963
Two Days Ago–1,333,742
EVOLUTION OF-GLOBAL CASES (WHO):
Today–56,623,643
Two Days Ago– 55,326,907
NEW CASES (WHO): 620,744
–Tracking the Virus Around the World– ![]()
–FROM JOHNS HOPKINS CSSE–
The Cultures of Dignity Resources for Supporting Social-Emotional Wellness
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A Final Note: The AAIE COVID-19 Briefing is provided to support your leadership for the school community you serve. We encourage you to use these resources in any way, shape or form that helps you, your communications and toward furthering close relationships across your community. – The AAIE Board |