![]() –MONDAY–
AAIE's COVID-19 BRIEFING #126 Data and Ideas to Support Your Crisis Leadership
October 19, 2020
–Highlights–
–QUICK LINKS FOR BUSY PEOPLE–
SCHOOL REOPENING TOOLBOX AAIE's ONLINE CONVERSATIONS ARCHIVE AAIE's SIX-QUESTION SURVEY RESULTS ON SCHOOL REOPENING
![]() THE SEVEN PRINCIPLES FOR THE NEW SCHOOL PROJECT
Our Phase II discussions will move from principles to practice. Please join the CONVERSATION– moving from the driving ideas into action.
Today's Quote to Consider:
" (The) next six to twelve weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic'" –Dr. Michael Osterholm, Director, Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota
THIS WEEK'S LEADERSHIP CONVERSATIONS with International School Leaders Around the World
TUESDAY October 20 08:00AM EDT LEADERSHIP RESILIENCE– "Am I Going to Make It?"
– presented by Dr. Kristin Daniels and Ellen Mahoney, The Circulus Institute PART ONE (three parts- three Tuesdays in a row): Building Your Own Resilience
WEDNESDAY October 21 08:00AM EDT IN A SCHOOL YEAR WHERE IT CAN FEEL ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO SATISFY PARENTS OR GIVE SUPPORT THEY NEED, WHAT IS THE HELP THAT HELPS?
– presented by Rosalind Wiseman, Cultures of Dignity Please Join Cultures of Dignity co-founder and best-selling author, Rosalind Wiseman for a conversation on strengthening family well-being and supporting parents while their children are distance learning. Rosalind will use her new publication The Distance Learning Playbook for Parents to give school leaders concrete skills to help parents during this uncertain time.
THURSDAY October 22 08:00AM EDT SCHOOL HEADS AND SENIOR LEADERS AROUND THE WORLD #34 Our Weekly Conversation – hosted by Will Richardson Weekly Learning as a Community– All international school senior leaders are welcome. A Weekly CONVERSATION between School Heads and Senior Leaders. Our discussions continue to be contemporary, important and a time we teach each other. Thanks to Will Richardson who has facilitated our Thursday CONVERSATIONS, since the very beginning.
THURSDAY October 22 10:00AM EDT LATIN AMERICAN SCHOOL LEADERS– Our Weekly Conversation #24 – hosted by Sonia Keller (Tri-Association) and Dereck Rhoads (AASSA) The weekly Thursday CONVERSATIONS between Latin America school heads and senior leaders in collaboration with Tri-Association and AASSA. All are welcome to join the discussion. Our sessions are hosted by Sonia Keller and Dereck Rhoads.
FRIDAY October 23 8:00AM EDT THE AAIE NEW SCHOOL PROJECT: Phase II From Principles to Practice – an unprecedented collaboration between international schools around the world. Discussions Facilitated by Will Richardson, Homa Tavangar and Kevin Bartlett Thanks to all who came to FRIDAY's conversation about strategies and tools during our second week of discussion on AAIE New School Principle #1:
ADAPTIVE CHANGE - “WE USE FEARLESS INQUIRY TO CONTINUALLY INTERROGATE AND SHED EMBEDDED PRACTICE THAT DOES NOT AMPLIFY AND INSPIRE PROFOUND LEARNING THROUGHOUT OUR SCHOOL COMMUNITIES.”
In Friday's session we reviewed some great curated resources around the principle gathered by Bonnie Ricci and Anna Sugarman (which you can find on our Curator's Padlet here: bit.ly/aaiensp2 .) And then we broke into small groups to begin discussing how to begin living the Adaptive Change principle by looking at what we would stop doing, what we would continue to do, what new approaches we would take, and what of our current practice we would modify or tweak? All discussions will be collated and shared at next week's meeting.
THIS WEEK: We take on Principle #2:
CAPACITY: WE DEVELOP THE CAPACITY IN OUR PEOPLE TO IMPLEMENT HIGH QUALITY AND SUSTAINABLE SOLUTIONS IN A TIME OF RAPID AND UNMITIGATED CHANGE.
Building school capacity will be the focus of our work this week as we spend time in discussion, deepening our understanding of the meaning and language of the principle. The more participants we have in these conversations, the more clarity and power we can bring to this work. So please join us if you can, and bring a friend or two as well. –School Leadership and Covid-19: It’s complicated!–
Editor's Note: WIth a nod to ISB's new head of school, James MacDonald, the newest "Fragments" article from David Willows offers a liberating take on wide perspective and leadership. Can't have one without the other. And so often when we see the complexity in front of us, we can help everyone by stepping back to focus on the obvious, sophisticated and profound as a path to the more simple and straight-through solution.
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![]() Dr. David Willows, ISB
–by Dr. David Willows
One of the things I most enjoy about my job are the people around me who regularly share their ideas, knowledge and understanding. With each reference, book recommendation, or insight, it's like we are caught up in this collective effort to make sense of the things that are happening around us.
So it was no surprise when my new boss, James MacDonald, walked over to me the other day and dropped Jardin’s Principle into the conversation as a way of understanding the challenge of educational leadership during an unprecedented pandemic.
Strongly reminiscent of Paul Ricoeur and his ideas around second naivete, Jardin’s Principle was first developed in 1997 by Rob Eastaway in an article in the Financial Times.
Jardin's Principle is this: if you are trying to understand any subject or system, your level of understanding will pass through three stages. To start with, the way that you see and describe a system will be simplistic ie over-simplified, then it will become complicated but ultimately it will become simple again.
Simplistic > Complicated > Simple
So, to go back to the language of Ricoeur, we start off naive in our learning journey. We think we know, but we really don’t. As we increase our understanding, we realize just how much we don’t know. We question everything, we lose our bearings, and it is suddenly very hard to make sense of in our heads, let alone to anyone else. Then, finally, we begin to see patterns and the fog begins to clear. We know what’s important and can start to see the wood for the trees. We find it hard to distinguish between simplistic/naive and simple/profound.
Most of us either over-complicate or over-simplify things we don’t really understand.
First - and here I credit James entirely for this idea - we are currently on a multi-staged journey through a global crisis that we know is going to get more complex before it gets easier again. The problem that we face, as educational leaders, however, is that we don’t exactly know how far along we are. For months, we have lived with this sense that we were moving into a more complex phase, only to discover subsequently that things were relatively simple compared to what happened next.
Second, most of us might admit, in hindsight, that our “Reopening Plans” were either too complicated or too simple. Jardin’s Principle helps us to understand that this was always going to be the case, precisely because none of us really understand what is going on around us. Again, the challenge that we are facing is that others are looking to us for meaning and insights that we simply don’t have at this point.
Third, as challenging as things may be, Jardin’s Principle is also a message of hope in that it reminds us that everything that becomes complex will, one day, simplify again.
And that one, simple thought may be just enough to keep us going until the fog starts to lift and the sun finally starts to shine again through the clouds.
–A POEM TO CONSIDER–
Poetry as a source of peace and reflection...
Beginners –by Denise Levertov
“From too much love of living,
We have only begun How could we tire of hope? How can desire fail? to imagine justice and mercy, how it might be Surely our river
Surely it cannot Not yet, not yet-- too much hurt we have done to each other We have only begun to know So much is unfolding that must so much is in bud.
Governance in the Trenches: Some Solutions ...and with a happy ending
Editor's Note: There is a lovely commentary about teams; "New members of the team, a new team." With the addition of one or more members of any team, the dynamics can quickly change, in either direction. John provides a vivid reminder in the time of Covid-19 that institutional memory, blue ribbon board practices, board experience and suspending judgment (hence a strong trustee orientation protocol) are critically important. Maybe more than ever before.
The Case Study –by John Littleford
This School had a long-term valued Head, a strong board and long-term Chair which are the key characteristics of a stable and successful school. However, some changes at the School were overdue, and after many years, the Head agreed to step down and the Board took good care of him and his family financially. It is not uncommon for very long-term heads to feel that their time is not yet up when the board may feel that it is.
The new Head was an internal pick. An internal appointee is often the best choice to follow a head with a long history at a school. With the support of a wise Chair, the transition seemed to be going well. ![]() John Littleford, Littleford and Associates However, a curriculum issue caused substantial friction at the parent level, and almost all Board Members were present parents. Boards composed of 100% current parents, elected, appointed or a combination of both, are always going to face more governance challenges than those that have a mix of current and former parents, alumni, grandparents and a few key outsiders. Even then, the members must behave as if they do not represent their particular “group”.
Three new Board Members replaced three long-term ones who had “centered” the Board in its policy-making. The new Members lacked that institutional memory and focused on more immediate performance and test score outcomes, better college placement, happier parents, etc. and the Head’s style and decision-making came under fire. They got into the weeds, and support for both the Head and the Chair began to weaken. The Board separated into two clear factions. Seasoned Board Members wanted the newer ones to “cool their heels”.
All of this was happening just as Covid-19 hit the community. While the parents were pleased that School was in session and parents were generally happy with the Head’s reopening plans and protocols, the ideological splits within the Board widened. Basic questions of identity arose: whom do we serve? What is our mission? The demographics of the community began to change as new parent families in the locale enrolled while other families who had rushed elsewhere during the pandemic decided they could not or would not come back immediately. An old axiom is: you are whom you admit. This means that your mission will change and become what the new families say it is, regardless of the founding mission words.
The Head felt pummeled in the middle of all of this.
The Resolution
An outside, objective voice helped unify the Board, the Board added a new Member with some reflective history, and there was a renewed appreciation for the very hard work of the Chair and Head. The newer board members realized that they needed to respect institutional memory more, but others also heard their legitimate views and embraced some of their ideas.
Both the Head and Chair realized they had to work on other key partnerships. The Chair had to rebuild his relationships to all Board Members, and the Head had to spend more time getting to know better each and every board member, not just the Chair. They needed to create a more robust Committee on Trustees/Nominating Committee. The Chair planned to appoint a highly respected Chair of that Committee, and around that person build the protocols to recruit and vet mission appropriate Members who are wise team players. It is never a good idea for the board chair and COT chair to be the same person.
For this Board, things are now moving in the right direction and a greater sense of unity is apparent.
The Board and Head are committed to reviewing and living by best board practices and to preserving institutional memory by perhaps bringing back a former Board Member or appointing a Trustee Emeritus or two.
They are learning from their recent history of successes and failures as we all must do. –What day is it?– How pandemic stress alters your perception of time Editor's Note: A worthy three minutes where Harvard Professor, Dr. Ellen Braaten discusses how quarantine and change of habits due to the pandemic can change our perception of time. ![]() –THE NEWS of COVID-19– 40,294,0469,131,360 Cases Worldwide (Johns Hopkins CSSE)
A Predictor of Ex-Pat Mobility and International School Enrollment? International migration plummeted to an unprecedented degree during the Covid crisis, the OECD said, raising concerns over the longer-term outlook for a key driver of the global economy. Issuance of new visas and permits by the organization’s 37 members fell 46% in the first half of 2020 compared with a year earlier, and the OECD warned that prolonged restrictions and more remote working and studying mean mobility will not return to pre-crisis levels for “some time.” (Bloomberg News)
More than 40,000,000 Cases Worldwide Global coronavirus cases exceeded 40 million, with the pandemic showing no signs of slowing. Record numbers of infections are rolling across Europe while the U.S. and India are averaging more than 50,000 cases a day. Millions of Europeans are facing tighter restrictions on movement, with London and Paris enforcing stricter curbs and Ireland preparing some of the region’s toughest measures. (Bloomberg News)
The USA Will “Blow Right Through” 70,000 Cases Per Day ‘The next six-to-12 weeks are going to be the darkest of the entire pandemic,’ says Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, delivering a stark warning on NBC’s “Meet the Press” yesterday. “We do have vaccines and therapeutics coming down the pike,” Osterholm said, though any availability of a vaccine in a “meaningful way” won’t be until perhaps the third quarter of 2021. “Even then, half of the U.S. population, at this point, is skeptical of even taking the vaccine,” he said, pointing to a lack of clear leadership. “What we have right now is a major problem in messaging.” Osterholm said that Friday’s 70,000 cases in the U.S. — the most since the number peaked in July — is just the beginning of a very difficult stretch. “That number, we’re going to blow right through that,” he told NBC’s Chuck Todd. “And between now and the holidays, we will see numbers much, much larger than even the 67,000 to 75,000 cases.” Video here. (Marketwatch, NBC News)
The Czech Republic: Covid Cases Per 100,000 Highest in Europe The Czech health service is in danger of “collapse” as it struggles to cope with the worst infection rate in Europe, the country’s interior minister has warned. The Central European state recorded 9,721 positive tests on Thursday, another record-breaking number for a country of 10 million people that has seen the daily number of infections rocket upwards from around 500 at the beginning of September. According to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, the 14-day cumulative number of Covid cases per 100,000 people in the Czech Republic now stands at 701, the highest in Europe and over 120 more than second place Belgium. (The Daily Telegraph)
Poland Running Out of Frontline Medical Professionals A second wave of Covid-19 cases in Europe is tearing into countries that escaped the first, with health systems running short of the one resource they can’t run without: staff. One of Poland’s largest hospitals, in the city of Krakow, installed enough beds and ventilators to treat a surge of Covid-19 patients, but has started to run out of workers in recent weeks as the number of national cases has doubled roughly every three days. Orthopedists, urologists, surgeons, neurosurgeons and gynecologists have donned scrubs to help treat those sick with the coronavirus. (The Wall Street Journal)
Israel Ordered a Second Lockdown in Response to Coronavirus Resurgence. It’s not going so well As one of the few countries to return to a complete lockdown amid a new surge in coronavirus infections, Israel is learning that freezing a nation in place is even more difficult the second time around. Israel's experience could hold lessons for other governments looking to stem the pandemic's stubborn grip across the world. After a nearly two-month national quarantine last spring — in which Israel’s 9 million residents largely complied with orders to stay home — autumn’s Lockdown II has proved to be far leakier and more contentious. A restive public, doubtful that the restrictions are necessary, desperate to make a living and outraged at reports of politicians ignoring their own rules, has been less willing to bottle itself up since the second quarantine began Sept. 25.
Whole neighborhoods and towns have openly ignored rules against gatherings at synagogues, weddings and funerals, particularly in Israel’s ultra-Orthodox religious communities. With workplaces and schools shut, parks are filled with families and exercise groups. Social media is rife with stories of citizens of all stripes blowing through the official 1,000-meter limit on trips from home, with many couching visits to friends or family as permitted grocery runs. (Washington Post)
From the “Library” of Existing Drugs- a Promising Few University of New Mexico researchers who combed through a "library" of previously approved drugs believe they have identified a medication with the potential to help speed a patient's recovery from SARS-CoV-2 infection.
"The gist of it is we think we found a drug that is on par with remdesivir and is much cheaper," said Tudor Oprea, MD, PhD, professor of Medicine and Pharmaceutical Sciences and chief of the UNM Division of Translational Informatics. Remdesivir is a relatively new antiviral medication that has been shown to shorten hospital stays for those recovering from the novel coronavirus.
In a paper published this week in ACS Pharmacology & Translational Science, Oprea and his colleagues, in partnership with a team at the University of Tennessee Health Science Center led by professor Colleen Jonsson, PhD, reported that an older antimalarial drug called amodiaquine was effective in eradicating the virus in test tube experiments.
Tudor Oprea, MD, PhD said It was one of three promising candidates identified in a process that entailed studying the molecular characteristics of about 4,000 drugs approved for human use by the Food and Drug Administration and other agencies. The researchers hoped to find drugs that would target known vulnerabilities in the virus. The other two drugs -- an anti-psychotic called zuclophentixol and a blood pressure medication called nebivolol also cleared the virus in the experiments. (Science Daily)
Highest Since July: 70,000+ For the first time since late July, the tally of newly reported coronavirus cases in the United States surpassed 70,000 over the weekend. In 44 states and the District of Columbia, caseloads are higher than they were one month ago, and many of the new infections are being reported in rural areas with limited hospital capacity. More than 8,000,000 cases have been reported nationwide since February, and at least 216,000 people in the United States have died of covid-19, the disease caused by the virus. (The Washington Post)
Kansas City as the Next New York City? Health-care workers in states across the United States are issuing dire warnings that an ongoing surge in coronavirus cases is pushing hospitals to the brink. Eight hospitals and emergency departments in the Kansas City area in Missouri saw such high volumes of patients on Wednesday night that they had to temporarily stop accepting ambulances, Marc Larsen, an emergency physician overseeing the coronavirus response at St. Luke’s Health System, told the Kansas City Star on Thursday. Health-care facilities are “bursting at the seams” and “continually struggling with having adequate capacity for the surge that we are continually seeing and experiencing,” he said. “I worry that if we don’t start taking this seriously as a metropolitan area, we’re going to be the next New York,” Larsen told the Star. (The Washington Post, Kansas City Star)
Scoring a Patient’s Vulnerability to the Virus Scientists have developed, for the first time, a score that can accurately predict which patients will develop a severe form of Covid-19. The study, led by researchers at RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences, is published in The Lancet’s translational research journal EBioMedicine. The measurement, called the Dublin-Boston score, is designed to enable clinicians to make more informed decisions when identifying patients who may benefit from therapies, such as steroids, and admission to intensive care units. Until this study, no Covid-19-specific prognostic scores were available to guide clinical decision-making. The Dublin-Boston score can now accurately predict how severe the infection will be on day seven after measuring the patient’s blood for the first four days. (SciTechDaily, EBioMedicine)
–The STATS–
TOTAL GLOBAL CASES:
Johns Hopkins– 40,294,046
WHO–39,944,882
GLOBAL DEATHS (WHO):
Today–1,111,998
Three Days Ago–1,095,097
EVOLUTION OF-GLOBAL CASES (WHO):
Today–39,944,882
Three Days Ago– 38,789,204
NEW CASES (WHO):
Today–338,096
–Tracking the Virus Around the World–
–FROM JOHNS HOPKINS CSSE–
The Cultures of Dignity Resources for Supporting Social-Emotional Wellness
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A Final Note: The AAIE COVID-19 Briefing is provided to support your leadership for the school community you serve. We encourage you to use these resources in any way, shape or form that helps you, your communications and toward furthering close relationships across your community. – The AAIE Board |