–Highlights–

 

• 36,778,228 Cases World-wide (Johns Hopkins)
• NEXT WEEK'S CONVERSATIONS
• Teacher and Leadership Recruiting Agencies Speak– the state of play for capturing talent in the midst of a pandemic, Wednesday, October 14- (sign-up below)
• 100% masks for 100% of the community- the research and the type of mask matters too
• Finding the sweet spot for school sports
• Rural India– poverty and social distancing
• Brazil hits 5,000,000

–QUICK LINKS FOR BUSY PEOPLE–

Today's Quote to Consider: 

 

"...most scientists are confident that they can say something prescriptive about wearing masks. It’s not the only solution, but it is a profoundly important pillar of pandemic control.  Masks work, but they are not infallible. And, therefore, keep your distance.”

 

–from the New Yorker,, and Good Weekend  to you all!

100% Wearing of Masks by 100% of the People–

The Research is Crystal Clear

Even the question of what kinds of study would provide definitive proof that they work is hard to answer. “How good does the evidence need to be?” asks Fischhoff. “It’s a vital question.”

 

A preprint study posted in early August (and not yet peer reviewed), found that weekly increases in per-capita mortality were four times lower in places where masks were the norm or recommended by the government, compared with other regions. Researchers looked at 200 countries, including Mongolia, which adopted mask use in January and, as of May, had recorded no deaths related to COVID-19. Another study looked at the effects of US state-government mandates for mask use in April and May. Researchers estimated that those reduced the growth of COVID-19 cases by up to 2 percentage points per day. They cautiously suggest that mandates might have averted as many as 450,000 cases, after controlling for other mitigation measures, such as physical distancing.

 

“You don’t have to do much math to say this is obviously a good idea,” says Jeremy Howard, a research scientist at the University of San Francisco in California, who is part of a team that reviewed the evidence for wearing face masks in a preprint article that has been widely circulated.

NEXT WEEK'S

LEADERSHIP CONVERSATIONS 

with International School Leaders Around the World

Leading with the essential question, “How will the global pandemic impact the process of faculty and leadership recruitment and how will it effect the talent pool?", our colleagues from various recruiting agencies will provide a CONVERSATION about the current state of play for recruiting teacher and leadership talent.  

 

As international school leaders, many of our recent CONVERSATIONS have been about what now seems to be a recruiting season without end. That it is now year-round and how in the midst of a pandemic there have been all number of complications with even trying to get new teachers into the country. What does the crystal ball say to the professional recruiting agencies?   

Weekly Learning as a Community– All international school senior leaders are welcome.  A Weekly CONVERSATION  between School Heads and Senior Leaders– #33. Our discussions continue to be contemporary, important and a time we teach each other.  With thanks to Will Richardson who has facilitated our Thursday CONVERSATIONS, since the very beginning. 

 

The topics from these gatherings are a source of information for AAIE to bring key thought leaders into our community and to support leadership development for all. 

The weekly Thursday CONVERSATIONS between Latin America school heads and senior leaders in collaboration with Tri-Association and AASSA. All are welcome to join the discussion. Our sessions are hosted by Sonia Keller and Dereck Rhoads.  

A PROGRESS REPORT AND NEXT STEPS:

 

Those of you who have been engaged with us in this transformative project will know that, last year, we worked intensively to co-create Seven Principles that would define and drive a 'New School'. Together, we began to re-imagine 'the thing we call school' to better meet the needs of a post-Covid reality.

Phase II of the Project is designed to turn vision into reality, to translate principles into practice so that our work has a substantive and sustainable impact on learning for all stakeholders. The process is supported by three willing 'sherpas' (their label): Homa Tavangar, Will Richardson and Kevin Bartlett, have co-designed a working pattern for our conversations, with a two-week focus on each Principle:

• Week One: Co-creating the Meaning....a generative deep-dive into the essence of each Principle so that we develop deep, enduring understanding of the most compelling concepts it captures.
• Week Two: Co-constructing the Means...a practical assembling of strategies and tools to help us achieve our aspirations.

Today we 'interrogated' Principle One: 

 

ADAPTIVE CHANGE - “WE USE FEARLESS INQUIRY TO CONTINUALLY INTERROGATE AND SHED EMBEDDED PRACTICE THAT DOES NOT AMPLIFY AND INSPIRE PROFOUND LEARNING THROUGHOUT OUR SCHOOL COMMUNITIES.”

 

We made personal and shared meaning around terms like 'fearless inquiry' using generative questions like, 'What are we afraid of, and why?'. We debated questions around how to decide which 'embedded practices' to shed, and how. We wondered together about what makes some learning more 'profound'.

 

We then began to 'write a history of the future', sharing ideas as to what this Principle would look like when enacted by learners, parents, teachers, leaders and trustees.
As always, we learned from each other...that's what happens when smart, dedicated leaders engage in generative conversations.

Of course, the sherpas learned too, meeting for an extended debrief after the session, and have already modified future plans to create more conversation space.
Next week, we stick with Principle One, sharing a whole range of the best practical tools and strategies we know for driving Adaptive Change in authentic, challenging contexts.

Please join us for another powerful professional leadership conversation to make Friday a day for re-energizing and building our own efficacy.

Reminder

–Teaching Like the Future Depends On It–

Unlocking the Potentials of Remote/Hybrid Learning Environments

Reminder

Beginning October 15

The AAIE Masterminds Program

 

SPORTS SAFETY AND COVID-19

A Sampling of the Interview:

 

 

So what are the safest sports for kids and possibly the least safe sports at this moment?
Yeah, so I thought about this in the past and have gone through the Olympic sports list, and tried to think, OK, how would I rank everything? But in general, I try to think through what's the venue—is it indoors, is it outdoors—what's the level of contact and for how long is the contact we're having, and how many people are we having together. And so I think, OK, things like cross-country, things like swimming, tennis, those types of individual sports or if there's not too much contact going on, these are sports that I think are generally lower risk.

 

And then you go up a level, and you might say, OK we have contact—we might have more contact or more close proximity, but it's outside. So baseball—I might even put football in here because even though they have contact, they're not in contact for that long. But then, even riskier than that, I would say things like wrestling are highest on the list, possibly basketball might be up there.

 

This has really struck a lot of people, the lack of sports that we've been having. And so I'm curious, in your mind, why do we care so much about sports as a society? And why is it so important for us to see at least some sports happening again?
A tough question because you could think, well, we don't need sports like we do food and water and air. Why do we actually need to do this? And I think it's different for everyone. But back to when I was a swimmer, sometimes you think, Why does this even matter? Why am I even spending my time doing it? And I think that a lot of people really need to either watch or be part of something that people are striving for, something larger and something that's hard to do. And that is really something exciting to see, and it's helpful in taking us out of ourselves and bringing us together as a society. I think that that's important.

 

But I also think that goes within the list of things that are critical for us and that are our priorities. If we think about youth sports, and we think about activity, I think that's incredibly important because we have, also, an obesity epidemic at the same time. So trying to think through how to do things safely, I think, is important for us going forward. We're not going to have an immediate vaccine. We need to think through how we're going to do things in a sustainable way, the things that really are important to us.

 

It makes me think, What factors beyond contact on the field should we be concerned about with regard to COVID-19?
So I think some of these things are how often we're having athletes in close proximity, how long that close proximity lasts, how efficient the ventilation system is. These types of things are really important. But I also think that beyond just thinking about what's happening in the field, it's really important to include what's happening off the field. I think that while the sport itself might be fairly low risk, partying every Friday night is not low risk. And so I think that we need to think about, well, these are also social gatherings, and it's important for our teens and our kids and young people to get together. But I think that we need to have a culture of safety.

 

Coaches and teammates need to be part of that to say, well, we could get together to do our sport, which is really important, but that doesn't mean that we're all safe together and that we can go and party at so-and-so's house every weekend or something. This is where, I think, we're having a lot of problems, these uncontrolled events that are happening in people's houses. And that's, I think, more of a problem than actually what's happening on the field, though the two are connected because that's a social network there.

 

And I guess as a parent, you want to see sports being played, let your kids get out of the house and run around and just be kids again because they've been locked up for so long.
Right. I mean, I have kids myself, and I'm always thinking through, OK, what other risks and benefits are we balancing here? And in some cases, I think it's hard for people to realize, but we don't live a zero-risk life. And so we have to just decide what's worth it.

 

In some cases, it may not be worth it to do that one event where you think that you're going to have a chance of a lot of exposure. But if you think maybe there's an event that's more well planned and that people are working hard to keep things safe, and it has a lot of benefits to you, then maybe it's something you do. I think at the end of the day, it's about balancing those risks and deciding what's appropriate.

–THE NEWS of COVID-19–

36,778,228

Cases Worldwide (Johns Hopkins CSSE)

From the The Trauma and Learning Policy Initiative

Once Lauded for its Coronavirus Response, Germany’s Daily Infection Rate Soars to Levels Not Seen Since April

Germany recorded a 43 percent jump in new coronavirus infections on Thursday, the highest level since April, as a country once lauded for its measured response to the pandemic struggles to curb a rise in cases. In a news conference in Berlin, Health Minister Jens Span called the sharp rise to 4,058 daily cases “worrying” and blamed it on an increasingly lax attitude among some segments of the population.

“People think that the virus isn’t as serious because we got through the summer well,” he said. “But that’s a false conclusion. It was because we took preventative measures that we did well.”

 

The number of deaths and patients in intensive care remains comparatively low, he said, with new cases largely among younger people who “want to party, to travel, and think of themselves as invulnerable.” But he warned that death rates would rise as more vulnerable parts of the population are infected. Lothar Wieler, the head of the Robert Koch Institute, Germany’s federal agency for infectious disease, said he was concerned that infection rates were rising in almost all regions of the country. He said it is too early, however, to tell if the country is entering a trend of exponential growth.

(Washington Post)

 

Berlin Nightlife Given First Curfew in 70 years as Covid Cases Surge

German capital tells bars to shut at 11pm, while fellow role model Belgium also tightens rules.  Berlin’s nightlife is facing a closing time for the first time in 70 years as the party-loving German capital seeks to contain spiraling coronavirus infection rates. From Saturday, bars, restaurants and off-licenses will have to close their doors between 11pm and 6am as a large second wave of Covid-19 cases in the city threatens to taint Germany’s image as a pandemic role model.

 

With health authorities mainly blaming private parties and family meet-ups for the latest outbreaks, public gatherings of more than five people from more than two households, and private gatherings of more than 10 people, will also be banned under new rules announced on Wednesday.

 

Berlin has since the start of October been recording more daily new confirmed infections than it did at the peak of the first wave in late March, when testing capacity was more limited. On Tuesday, two of the three “traffic lights” that make up the city’s coronavirus warning system switched to red after authorities recorded 44.2 new cases per 100,000 people over the past seven days. (The Guardian)

 

The Mess in the Midwest– A USA Story

The coronavirus has exploded in North Dakota. In the past week, North Dakota reported more new cases per capita than any other state. Hospitalizations for the virus have risen abruptly, forcing health care officials in some towns to send people to faraway hospitals, even across state lines to Montana and South Dakota. Officials have huddled with hospital leaders in recent days to contemplate ways to free up more hospital beds even as they contend with broader turmoil over virus policy in a state that has seen resignations of three state health officers since the pandemic’s start. The rise in cases and deaths — September was by far the deadliest month for North Dakota since the start of the pandemic — reflects a new phase of the virus in the United States. From Wisconsin to Montana, states in the Midwest and Great Plains, many of which had avoided large outbreaks in earlier months when coastal cities were hard hit, are seeing the brunt. And in rural portions of the states now reeling, medical resources are quickly stretched thin for residents who can live hours from large hospitals. (via The New York Times, Politico)

 

80% of Positive UK Cases in Study Had No Core Symptoms

More than 80% of people who tested positive in a national coronavirus survey had none of the core symptoms of the disease the day they took the test, scientists say.

The finding has prompted fears that future Covid-19 outbreaks will be hard to control without more widespread testing in the community to pick up “silent transmission”, particularly in universities and high-risk workplaces such as meat processing facilities.

 

Researchers at UCL said 86.1% of infected people picked up by the Office for National Statistics Covid-19 survey between April and June had none of the main symptoms of the illness, namely a cough, or a fever, or a loss of taste or smell the day they had the test. Three quarters who tested positive had no notable symptoms at all, the scientists found when they checked whether people reported other ailments such as fatigue and breathlessness on the day of testing.

 

The study, reported in Clinical Epidemiology, analyzed the symptoms described by more than 36,000 people who were tested between April and June. Only 115 tests came back positive and of those only 27 people, or 23.5%, had symptoms of any description.

 

When the scientists narrowed the symptoms down to the main three for coronavirus infections, namely a cough, or a fever, or a loss of taste or smell, the number reporting the ailments fell to 16 or 13.9%.

 

On the back of the findings, high-risk work places, such as meat processing facilities, should do regular testing to pick up people who may be infectious but are not displaying symptoms. She urged universities to ramp up testing capacity now so students could be tested through the autumn and crucially before they return home at Christmas. (The Guardian)

 

New Cases in Europe Top the USA and South America

Europe is now reporting more coronavirus cases weekly than the United States or South America, as experts warn that a return to the peak of the epidemic in March could be on the cards unless urgent action is taken. There has also been a rise in the number of cases among the most vulnerable groups, including the over-65s, as the pandemic’s second wave sweeps the Continent.  In a sign that Europe is heading towards becoming the epicenter of Covid-19 cases, the Continent recorded 460,000 new coronavirus cases last week, while North and South America announced 380,000 each. (The Daily Telegraph)

 

 

Rural Surge Propels India Toward More Covid-19 Infections 

The contagion is hitting towns and villages where resources are scant and people are skeptical of lockdown efforts. If unchecked, Indian infections could exceed those in the United States. The defiance of the coronavirus rules is being reflected across rural India, and it is propelling this nation’s virus caseload toward the No. 1 spot globally. Infections are rippling into every corner of this country of 1.3 billion people. The Indian news media is calling it “The Rural Surge.” In the Indian megacities where the pandemic first hit, vigorous public awareness campaigns have left the populace mostly on guard. But when it comes to government efforts to contain the virus, rural India is resisting.

 

In many villages, no one is wearing masks. There is no social distancing. People are refusing to get tested and they are hiding their sick. Hospitals are straining; in the coronavirus ward of one hospital here in the state of Tripura, insects were left to crawl over corpses, according to photos from a former government official. In recent trips to more than a dozen rural areas spread across several states, from Tamil Nadu in the south to West Bengal in the far east, to Tripura, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in the north, the reaction to the pandemic appeared to be completely different from that of the big cities like Delhi and Mumbai.

 

This intransigence has helped India catch up with the United States in terms of total infections. U.S. cases are near 7.6 million, compared with India’s 6.8 million, according to a New York Times database. But India outpaces new American cases by 30,000 or so each day, putting it on a path to potentially surpass the United States in the coming weeks. (New York Times)

 

Brazil Surpasses 5 Million Virus Cases,

Even as the Pace of Confirmed Infections Slows

Seven months after its first case of the coronavirus, Brazil on Wednesday passed the five million mark. The milestone comes as the spread of the virus has been slowing down for over a month, an achievement many public health experts believe has little to do with the Brazilian government’s handling of the crisis, but rather how thoroughly the virus has ravaged the country.

 

Nearly 150,000 people have died from the virus in Brazil. As the virus eased its grip on the country’s biggest cities, like Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, life started to go back to normal, with restaurants and parks reopening. Almost half of Brazilian states have authorized schools to reopen, albeit with many restrictions.

 

Meanwhile, concerns of a second wave of the virus are still heightened. In the city of Manaus, in the state of Amazonas, one of the most severely hit by the virus, the number of cases started to go up again, especially among young people, in recent weeks. But deaths haven’t shot up again, and government statistics show the city’s hospitals are coping well with demand. (New York Times)

–Tracking the Virus Around the World–

–FROM JOHNS HOPKINS CSSE–

The Cultures of Dignity Resources for Supporting

Social-Emotional Wellness 

A Final Note: The AAIE COVID-19 Briefing is provided to support your leadership for the school community you serve. We encourage you to use these resources in any way, shape or form that helps you, your communications and toward furthering close relationships across your community.  – The AAIE Board