QUICK LINKS for Busy People

–THIS WEEK'S CONVERSATIONS–

with International School Leaders from Around the World

Now that we're all well rested and ready to get back to the work of imagining the future, this Friday we will restart our deep dives into each of the New School Principles that we developed last year. This week, we start our interrogation of our Community Principle: “We co-create caring, engaged, and inclusive communities clearly defined by a common learning language, and a commitment to shared learning values.”

 

As always, we'll begin with some context, thinking about the role of community in this change moment we're living through, and then engage in discussions and some reflection to make sure we're clear on what we mean by the language within the principle. Next week we'll begin our brainstorm some strategies for implementing the Community Principle in practice. 

 

As we move into the final few weeks of our discussions, we're looking forward to having you join us for this important work. Hope to see you Friday. 

Editor's Note:  Upfront, a grim article that poses perspectives on what is likely to come our way.  The New York Times reports that there are now 32 countries, from South Africa, across the UK,  to a small village in Colorado, reporting cases involving a more infectious COVID-19 variant– considered to be 50-70% more virulent. An important  and a rather unnerving read to keep you up-to-date on coronavirus science,. 

Increased transmissibility can wreak havoc in a very, very short time—especially when we already have uncontrolled spread in much of the United States. The short-term implications of all this are significant, and worthy of attention, even as we await more clarity from data. In fact, we should act quickly especially as we await more clarity—lack of data and the threat of even faster exponential growth argue for more urgency of action. If and when more reassuring data come in, relaxing restrictions will be easier than undoing the damage done by not having reacted in time.

 

To understand the difference between exponential and linear risks, consider an example put forth by Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who focuses on mathematical analyses of infectious-disease outbreaks. Kucharski compares a 50 percent increase in virus lethality to a 50 percent increase in virus transmissibility. Take a virus reproduction rate of about 1.1 and an infection fatality risk of 0.8 percent and imagine 10,000 active infections—a plausible scenario for many European cities, as Kucharski notes. As things stand, with those numbers, we’d expect 129 deaths in a month. If the fatality rate increased by 50 percent, that would lead to 193 deaths. In contrast, a 50 percent increase in transmissibility would lead to a whopping 978 deaths in just one month—assuming, in both scenarios, a six-day infection-generation time.

 

Transmissibility increases can quickly—very quickly—expand the baseline: Each new infected person potentially infects many more people. Severity increases affect only the infected person. That infection is certainly tragic, and this new variant’s lack of increase in severity or lethality thankfully means that the variant is not a bigger threat to the individual who may get infected. It is, however, a bigger threat to society because it can dramatically change the number of infected people. To put it another way, a small percentage of a very big number can easily be much, much bigger than a big percentage of a small number.

 

Viruses mutate all the time and there have been too many baseless “mutant-ninja virus” doomsaying headlines this year. The exaggerated, "clickbaity" alarmism makes it harder to discern real threats from sensationalism. Given the constant reality of mutation, genomic variants should be considered innocent until proved guilty. Even an increase in the proportion of cases attributable to a particular variant is not definitive proof of an evolutionary advantage.

 

However, as data on the new variant roll in, there is cause for real concern. Trevor Bedford, a scientist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and a board member for the Covid Tracking Project at The Atlantic, points out that infections from the new variant are increasing very rapidly among the population in the U.K. Bedford also notes that this new variant seems to have a higher secondary-attack rate—meaning the number of people subsequently infected by a known case—compared with “regular” COVID-19. 

 

Finally, the new variant seems to result in higher viral loads (though this is harder to be sure about as viral loads can be affected by sampling bias and timing). As Kucharski told me, all of this does not rule out other explanations. This increased transmission could be due to chance or founder effects—meaning one variant just happened to get somewhere before the other variants and then got “lucky”; it was early, rather than more transmissible. It could be due to changed behavior among people—quarantine fatigue, less masking—leading to more rapid spread.

 

However, given the current evidence, along with the specifics of the mutation, it’s getting harder to assume that those other explanations are more likely than the simple proposition that this is truly a more transmissible variant. LEARN MUCH MORE HERE

STAYING UP-TO-DATE ON CORONAVIRUS SCIENCE

A novel computational drug screening strategy combined with lab experiments suggest that pralatrexate, a chemotherapy medication originally developed to treat lymphoma, could potentially be repurposed to treat Covid-19. Haiping Zhang of the Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology in Shenzhen, China, and colleagues present these findings in the open-access journal PLOS Computational Biology.

 

With the Covid-19 pandemic causing illness and death worldwide, better treatments are urgently needed. One shortcut could be to repurpose existing drugs that were originally developed to treat other conditions. Computational methods can help identify such drugs by simulating how different drugs would interact with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19.

 

To aid virtual screening of existing drugs, Zhang and colleagues combined multiple computational techniques that simulate drug-virus interactions from different, complimentary perspectives. They used this hybrid approach to screen 1,906 existing drugs for their potential ability to inhibit replication of SARS-CoV-2 by targeting a viral protein called RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRP).

The new variant sports an unusual number of mutations, including some that appear to change the virus’ behavior. It seems to be significantly more transmissible, increasing the rate at which infected people infect others.

 

There’s no evidence to date that the variant triggers more severe disease. But hospitals are straining to handle Covid patients as it is; more infections could lead to a higher death rate, because of diminished quality of care.

 

“The case fatality rate increases if health care systems get overwhelmed,” said Nahid Bhadelia, medical director of the special pathogens unit at Boston Medical Center. “That’s just how it works.”

Turkey slammed its doors to travelers from Britain on Friday, saying that it had found 15 infections with the new, more transmissible variant of the virus that first emerged in England. All were among recent arrivals from the United Kingdom.

 

Turkey’s health minister, Fahrettin Koca, issued a statement saying that the 15 people infected with the variant were in isolation and that their contacts were being traced and placed under quarantine. In countrywide checks, the statement said, the virus had not been detected in anyone other than travelers who arrived from Britain.

 

The finding brings the number of countries that have detected the variant to at least 33 since Britain announced finding it on Dec. 8, and the number of countries barring travelers arriving from Britain to more than 40. Some countries are also imposing restrictions on travelers, including U.S. citizens, who in recent weeks visited the countries where the variant has been detected.

 

The Philippines expanded restrictions on travelers from Britain and 18 other countries, adding the United States after a third state, Florida, reported an infection involving the variant. Many countries have already restricted travel from the United States because of its staggering number of infections — the most in the world.

–THE NEWS of COVID-19–

85,327,849 Cases Worldwide (Johns Hopkins CSSE)

Looking Back One Year Ago–

The Initial View from Wuhan (From 44 to 84,600,00 reported cases)

 

Exactly one year ago today, the following two paragraphs led a story in Science Magazine:

“Stoking fears that a novel virus may have begun to infect people, health authorities in the central Chinese city of Wuhan late on Friday local time announced they have documented 44 unusual cases of pneumonia—a sharp jump from their initial report of 27 cases on 31 December 2019. Although the city is being praised for quickly sharing information, infectious disease specialists around the world are eager to get more details on the mysterious pathogen and the disease it produces in patients. In today’s report, Wuhan officials ruled out influenza, avian flu, and adenovirus; they call the disease a ‘viral pneumonia of unknown cause.’ (Sciencemag.org)

 

South African Coronavirus Variant "More of a Problem"

than UK Strain

British Health Secretary Matt Hancock said Monday that he is “incredibly worried about the South African variant” of the novel coronavirus and described it as “even more of a problem” than the new UK strain.

 

“This is a very, very significant problem,” Hancock told BBC radio.

 

The UK has already restricted flights from South Africa and mandated anyone traveling from there to quarantine on arrival. Meanwhile, a leading Oxford scientist has said there was a “big question mark” around the effectiveness of current vaccines on the South African variant.

“My gut feeling is the vaccine will be still effective against the Kent strain,” Sir John Bell told Times Radio, adding “I don’t know about the South African strain, there’s a big question mark about that.”

 

The UK variant is believed to have originated in southeast England. British scientists say the pattern of mutations makes it more easily transmitted, although it does not appear to cause more severe disease. "The mutations associated with the South African form are really pretty substantial changes in the structure of the protein," Bell added. (BBC, CNN)

 

Large Parts of Africa May Not Get Covid-19 Vaccines for Several Years

Some African countries may not receive enough Covid-19 vaccine doses to reach herd immunity for years to come, according to an internal report by a World Health Organization (WHO) initiative to coordinate vaccine roll-out.

 

Vaccinations aren’t likely to begin in Africa until mid-2021, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. It could take years to secure the doses needed to immunize 60 per cent of the continent’s 1.3 billion people, the threshold at which herd immunity may be achieved. (New Scientist)

 

Germany to Extend Nationwide Lockdown?

Germany is preparing to extend its nationwide lockdown until the end of January, as governments across Europe consider prolonging or strengthening restrictions to battle highly contagious mutations of coronavirus. “Premature easing would set us back very far again,” Markus Söder, the premier of Bavaria and leader of the CSU, one of Germany’s governing parties, said on Sunday, after the heads of the country’s 16 states met virtually over the weekend. “The numbers are simply still far too high,” he added. “As annoying as it is, we have to stay consistent and not give up too soon again.” (Financial Times)

 

Third National Lockdown for the UK

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has put the country on notice for a third national lockdown, as it emerged that the Government is drawing up plans for the return of shielding. England could be back in lockdown by the middle of the month, Government sources suggested, prompting fears that the country will be kept in a straitjacket until at least Easter. The Telegraph understands that discussions about the return of shielding have already begun in Government, and a further announcement on school closures could come as soon as this week. Mr Johnson signposted further closures and refused to rule out personal restrictions last seen during the first lockdown as he talked of the need to be "realistic" about the pace at which Covid is spreading. (The Daily Telegraph)

COVID-19 Impact on Latin America

Coronavirus has devastated Latin America’s population and economies, with one in four global deaths from Covid-19 suffered in the region. As the backlash over the pandemic intensifies, politicians are in the line of fire, with a wave of elections this year offering populist outsiders the chance to unseat faltering incumbents. Hoping to capitalize on the unprecedented distrust of a political class seen as out of touch and corrupt, a series of maverick and fringe candidates are running in presidential elections in Ecuador, Peru and Chile this year. “They [political leaders] are only slightly more popular than used-car salesmen,” said Christopher Sabatini, senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House. “Anyone with any taint of association with the traditional political class will be rejected.” (Financial Times) 

 

December is Worst Month in the USA

By nearly every measure, December was the worst month since the pandemic took hold in the U.S. Thanksgiving gatherings, cooler weather and general fatigue from nine months of restrictions contributed to an onslaught of new confirmed coronavirus cases across much of the country, bringing with it the subsequent surge in hospitalizations and deaths that public-health officials had warned of. New Covid-19 cases stayed above 100,000 a day throughout the month, and more often than not were closer to 200,000, according to an analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University by The Wall Street Journal. Of the country’s 20 million infections reported since the start of the pandemic, over 6.3 million new cases were recorded in December—far more than in any other month. (The Wall Street Journal)

 

Calling for a State of Emergency in Tokyo and Beyond

The governors of Tokyo and its three neighboring prefectures on Saturday called on the Japanese government to declare a state of emergency to combat the surging coronavirus. Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike, Saitama Gov. Motohiro Ono, Kanagawa Gov. Yuji Kuroiwa and Chiba Gov. Kensaku Morita issued the request to Yasutoshi Nishimura, the government's coronavirus point man, during a meeting that lasted for over three hours. The call for action marks perhaps the biggest test so far for Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga's government, which is only three and half months old. (Nikkei Asian Review)

 

Infections Drop in India:  Universal Acceptance of Masking

In September, India was reporting almost 100,000 Covid-19 cases a day, with many predicting it would soon pass the U.S. in overall cases. Instead, its infections dropped and are now at one-fourth that level. India has brought down its virus numbers, despite often being too crowded for social distancing, having too many cases for effective contact tracing and an economy that isn’t well equipped to weather long lockdowns. One of the main reasons, Indian health officials say, is that the country has managed to encourage and enforce almost universal acceptance of masks without much debate. (Wall Street Journal)

 

Triple the Originally Reported Number in Russia

After months of questions over the true scale of the coronavirus pandemic in Russia and the efficacy of a Russian-developed vaccine, the state statistical agency in Moscow has announced new figures indicating that the death toll from Covid-19 is more than three times as high as officially reported.

 

From the start of the pandemic early this year, the health crisis has been enveloped and, say critics, distorted by political calculations as President Vladimir V. Putin and Kremlin-controlled media outlets have repeatedly boasted of Russian successes in combating the virus and keeping the fatality rate relatively low.

 

The new data, issued on Monday by the state statistics agency Rosstat, would raise Russia from eighth to third in a ranking of countries by the number of deaths from the pandemic. (New York Times)

 

France Detects First Case of South African Strain of Covid-19

The 501.V2 Variant was detected by South African authorities in mid December. Cases have since been found in Japan and Britain among others. The variant, believed to be more easily transmitted like another version found in Britain, was discovered in France in a man who had returned from South Africa to his home in the Haut-Rhin region which borders Switzerland. 

Status of Vaccinations Around the World

–FROM JOHNS HOPKINS CSSE–

The Cultures of Dignity Resources for Supporting

Social-Emotional Wellness 

A Final Note: The AAIE COVID-19 Briefing is provided to support your leadership for the school community you serve. We encourage you to use these resources in any way, shape or form that helps you, your communications and toward furthering close relationships across your community.  – The AAIE Board