![]() –MONDAY–
AAIE's COVID-19 BRIEFING #81
Editor's Note: During summer holiday, the BRIEFING will be published on Monday, Wednesday and Friday of each week.
July 6, 2020
Highlights
Four new reopening plans added today
![]() –From the WHO Director General– "We are concerned that some countries have not used all the tools at their disposal and have taken a fragmented approach.
–Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus
Asking a Different Question:
How Does Behavior Change Impact COVID-19 Outcomes? ![]() COVID-19: This model shows why masks and social distancing are so important An actuarial model demonstrates how infections and deaths progress on a daily basis over a three-month period depending on how people behave in response to the outbreak. Wearing face covering and social distancing, can significantly impact the spread of this virus and mortality rates.
The Goldenson Center (University of Connecticut) COVID-19 model uses a hypothetical 1,000-person population and calculates outcomes using three types of information: the initial number of infections, social distancing, and personal protection measures that include wearing masks, frequent hand-washing and staying quarantined if exhibiting COVID-19 symptoms.
The model then uses this initial information to project on a daily basis the cumulative infections and deaths over a three-month period. It’s not based on actual disease data and is designed to demonstrate the effects of safety measures, rather than make specific predictions. ![]() Here, a hypothetical group of 100 infected people out of a population of 1,000, with 10% observing good safety protocols, leads to hundreds of infections and deaths after three months. ![]() This simulation shows the effect on the same hypothetical group of 100 infected people out of a group of 1,000 where 80% of people wear masks and practice social distancing, which slows the infection rate to almost zero after two months. Jumpa Lagi! "See Each Other Again": The Dalat International School Reopening Plan
Editor's Note: The Dalat International School Reopening Plan features a STEP concept (short-term educational program), recognizing both geographic separation and virus vulnerability. Head of School, Karl Steinkamp and team recognize the work of fellow international schools around the world. Also, take note of the clear messages about use of masks, giving the call to classroom teachers when face-to-face instruction is taking place. Also have a look at the Dalat approach to financial aid.
![]() Karl Steinkamp, Head of School, Dalat International School ![]() Pushing the need for flexibility
This plan takes into account more than physical health; emotional health and well-being are also
From Karl Steinkamp and Team
Jumpa Lagi! We have named our reopening plan after this common Bahasa phrase because ultimately the purpose of this plan is to make it possible for us to come back together and “see each other again.”
In the current COVID environment it will take a lot of planning and work to make sure that we can resume face to face classes on campus and to make sure that this is happening in a safe environment for our students, parents, and staff.
It is our goal to handle this uncertainty and ever changing environment as best we can by being ready to adapt and flex to the needs of our families. We will strive to communicate well throughout this “new normal”.
We are grateful that our community works hard to be one that is characterized by unity and care for one another. Jumpa lagi. Dalat International School recognizes that the benefits of face-to-face teaching and learning cannot be fully replicated in an online environment. Face-to-face instruction is best for most students. Therefore, the goal of the school is to get all students back to face to face school as soon as possible. However, the school also recognizes that this presents a challenge for some families. Some students may be away from school due to extended illness, weakened immune system, or immigration requirements. Dalat will provide a distance learning option for these students for at least the first quarter of the school year. ![]() ![]() STEP is designed for students who are unable to return to face to face instruction with their peers. This may be due to being stranded outside of the country or to a medical condition weak immune system.
–THE NEWS of COVID-19– Focus on the USA, Latin America and India 11,495,412 Cases World Wide (Johns Hopkins CSSE)
FROM THE RESEARCH (Cornell University, Nature Journal)
Most People Never Show Classic Symptoms
![]() ![]() The Coronavirus is a Master of Disguise– Here's how it works Masks = 5% GDP In a recent Goldman Sachs report, the economists argue that mask wearing could avert economic shutdowns and save 5% of U.S. GDP.
According to the research, a federal mandate forcing people to wear masks in public could lower the national daily growth rate of new coronavirus infections from 1.6% to 0.6%. To achieve a similar decrease in infections by closing businesses would bring about a fall in GDP of 5%. In other words, masks work very well at curbing the spread of the disease and are far less economically painful than shutting down the economy.
The report points out that the United States stands apart from other countries when it comes to wearing face masks. In Asia, mask-wearing has been common for some time and has been widespread during the coronavirus outbreak. In Europe, many countries have mandated masks in public. But the United States has no federal mandate, nor cultural norms that have led to the widespread use of masks. In fact, it’s become a highly polarized and politicized issue. (Fast Company)
A Grim Prediction for Latin America–500 Kilometers from an ICU Bed In the last week of June, coronavirus deaths averaged more than 2,000 a day in Latin America and the Caribbean -- half of all recorded deaths worldwide, according to a CNN tally of WHO data. Most forecasts suggest the picture will get much grimmer -- with nearly 440,000 deaths expected across the region by October, according to the University of Washington. The head of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Dr. Carissa Etienne, said this week: "The region of the America is clearly the current epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic."
Latin American states have had dramatically different experiences with Covid-19. Uruguay, which has a well-funded public health system, embarked on an aggressive tracking and testing program when the pandemic arrived. Despite a change of government in the middle of the crisis, it has had a consistent policy on lockdown. Nearly 20% of the population downloaded a government app with guidance on the virus. Paraguay, which is much poorer than Uruguay, appears to have benefited from an early lockdown. It also enforced quarantine measures for people entering the country from Brazil, the epicenter of infections in Latin America. Elsewhere, the story is far less optimistic, especially in countries which have large informal economies. In Mexico, Colombia and Peru, nearly two-thirds of workers have no safety net beneath them. And their income has probably declined by 80% during the pandemic, according to the International Labor Organization -- putting even basic health care out of reach.
Crowded living conditions in poorer urban areas, where basic hygiene and social distancing are next to impossible, threaten the region with a growing tide of infections. As Dr. Marcos Espinal, chief of the Department of Communicable Diseases and Health Analysis at PAHO, told CNN: "In the barrios of Lima it's going to be very difficult to do social distancing."
All but five or six governments fall well short of the WHO target of spending 6% of GDP on health, he says. Peru, for example, spends 3.3%. Some Amazon towns in Brazil are more than 500 kilometers from the nearest ICU bed. (CNN)
Airborne Spread in Small Quantities More than 200 scientists from over 30 countries are urging the World Health Organization to take more seriously the possibility of the airborne spread of the novel coronavirus as case numbers rise around the world and surge in the United States. In a forthcoming paper titled “It is Time to Address Airborne Transmission of Covid-19,” 239 signatories attempt to raise awareness about what they say is growing evidence that the virus can spread indoors through aerosols that linger in the air and can be infectious even in smaller quantities than previously thought. Until recently, most public health guidelines have focused on social distancing measures, regular hand-washing and precautions to avoid droplets. But the signatories to the paper say the potential of the virus to spread via airborne transmission has not been fully appreciated even by public health institutions such as the WHO. The paper, which was shared with The Washington Post ahead of publication this week in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases, comes as the WHO faces criticism over its coronavirus response, calls for reform and a U.S. threat to cut funding and withdraw completely. (The Washington Post)
A Mutated COVID-19, Increased “Fitness Advantage” Evidence is growing that a mutated coronavirus strain, the main one circulating in the Houston area, is more contagious than the original virus in China.Two new research papers show that the newer strain is more transmissible, a possibility first suggested by a team of scientists in May. At the time, that suggestion was considered highly speculative by many scientists, including some in Houston. “A summary of the data thus far suggests that this strain has gained a fitness advantage over the original and is more transmissible as a result,” said Joseph Petrosino, Baylor College of Medicine chair of molecular virology and microbiology. “It is safe to say this version is more infectious.” (Houston Chronicle)
Focus Remains on the USA The U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic neared 130,000, as surging infection rates in many parts of the country heaped more pressure on overstretched hospitals. The U.S. added more than 49,000 new cases on Sunday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Cases in the U.S. account for about a quarter of the global total of more than 11.4 million infections. (The Wall Street Journal)
Florida Doubles in Two Weeks It took three months, from early March to June 22, for Florida to cross 100,000 new confirmed COVID-19 cases. It took less than two weeks for the state to go from 100,000 to 200,000 cases — and the positive test rate keeps rising. The 10,059 confirmed new novel coronavirus cases from Sunday’s Florida Department of Health update, the third highest single day total, behind Saturday and Thursday, shot the state’s pandemic case number to 200,111. While there’s been an increase in testing over the last week, there’s also been a massive leap in the positive test rate. The average daily positive test rate from June 21 through Jun 27 was 9.94%. The average for the next seven days: 14.47%. (The Miami Herald)
Overwhelming Intensive Care Capacities in Houston Local officials and experts in Austin, San Antonio, Houston and Fort Worth have expressed concerns in recent days that increasing coronavirus hospitalizations could overwhelm their intensive care capacities, with some saying it could happen in less than two weeks. As Texas hit another record high Sunday, reporting 8,181 people hospitalized for the new coronavirus, local officials predicted cities could soon run out of space to care for the sickest patients. The state reported that there still are 13,307 available staffed hospital beds, including 1,203 available staffed ICU beds statewide, but hospital capacity varies greatly by region. (via Texas Tribune, San Antonio Express)
Intensive Care Units at 91% in Arizona The Arizona Department of Health Services on Friday reported that ICU's are at 91 percent capacity after nearly a quarter of coronavirus tests conducted in the state returned positive. Almost 25 percent of the state's tests for coronavirus returned positive on Thursday, reported Axios. According to the DHS' website, 1,520 ICU beds were occupied, leaving only 156 beds still available. The state reported over 4,000 new cases on Friday and 31 new deaths. Arizona's DHS website shows that more than 91,858 confirmed cases in total have been recorded in the state and over 1,780 deaths. (via Newsweek)
India Moves to #3 India has passed Russia as the country with the third-highest number of coronavirus cases in the world after recording a record number of cases for one day. The health ministry added 23,000 new cases on Monday, taking India’s total to 697,000 and almost 20,000 deaths. On Sunday India racked up nearly 25,000, its highest total for one day. The increases took India past Russia as the third highest total in the world behind Brazil with 1.6 million cases and the United States with 2.88 million. (via The Guardian)
Israel in State of Emergency with COVID-19 Israel is in a state of emergency due to a resurgent coronavirus outbreak, and additional steps are needed to try to stem the spread, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday. The cabinet will reconvene within the coming day to decide on new restrictions and will present a plan within the next few days to address the economic challenges the pandemic is posing, he said at the opening of the weekly cabinet meeting. (via Bloomberg News)
A Week of Sharp Increases in Iran Iran recorded its highest number of deaths from COVID-19 within a 24-hour period, official health ministry figures showed on Sunday. The 163 deaths reported on Sunday exceed the previous record from last Monday, when the health ministry reported 162 deaths in a day. The Islamic Republic has recorded a total of 11,571 deaths and 240,438 infections from the coronavirus, health ministry spokeswoman Sima Sadat Lari said in a statement on state TV. There have been 201,330 recoveries, she said. The number of new daily infections and deaths has increased sharply in the last week following the gradual lifting of restrictions that began in mid-April. Iranians who do not wear masks will be denied state services and workplaces that fail to comply with health protocols will be shut for a week, President Hassan Rouhani said on Saturday as he launched new measures to try to curb the coronavirus. (Yahoo News)
Peru is Now Fifth Highest Peru on Sunday jumped past 300,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19, the fifth-highest in the world, as the Andean nation of nearly 33 million people slowly reopens its battered economy. The South American copper producer, which locked down in March against the virus but struggled to enforce a nationwide quarantine in the face of rising economic hardship, trails only Brazil in the region in terms of case numbers. Peru's death toll from the virus now stands at 10,589, the 10th-highest in the world, according to Reuters calculations. President Martín Vizcarra's government has eased restrictions this month to allow economic growth to revive, including the key mining sector. Peru is the world's second-largest producer of copper. Coronavirus cases rose by 3,638 on Sunday to 302,718, although new daily cases have slowed from peak levels in May and June. Health experts fear a potential flare-up, however, with more people on the streets as the lockdown eases. (US News and World Report)
University of Southern California Goes Another Way Amid the alarming surge in coronavirus spread, USC announced it will no longer bring all undergraduates back to campus for the fall semester and will move to mainly online classes, reversing an earlier decision to welcome students back for a hybrid model. The decision, announced by Provost Charles Zukoski late Wednesday, came the same day Gov. Gavin Newsom announced tougher restrictions on indoor activities. Zukoski recommended that students not return to campus for the semester and instead continue their education online. “The once-in-a-century COVID-19 pandemic has altered every aspect of our lives — the way we interact, work, and socialize — and with each new permutation of the pandemic, we must find ways to thrive,” Zukoski wrote in a letter to students. Given the continuing safety restrictions and limited densities permissible on campus, our undergraduate students primarily or exclusively will be taking their courses online in the fall term,” he said. “On-campus housing and activities will be limited.” Only 10% to 20% of courses during the fall semester will be conducted in person and on campus. These courses include certain labs, studios and performance classes, and research studies that require hands-on work. (Los Angeles Times)
–The STATS–
TOTAL GLOBAL CASES:
Johns Hopkins–11,495,412
WHO– 11,327,790
GLOBAL DEATHS (WHO):
Today–532,340
Three Days Ago–517,877
One Month Ago– 392,802
EVOLUTION OF-GLOBAL CASES (WHO):
Today– 11,327,790
Three Days Ago–10,710,005
One Week Ago– 10,185,374
One Month Ago– 6,663,304
NEW CASES (WHO):
Today–202,545
Three Days Ago–212,326
One Week Ago– 163,865
One Month Ago– 127,950
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–A Covid Quote–
“My words for all of you who need to feel motivated. Let this year - 2020 - be a learning curve in our life's trajectory. A year in which we reset the priorities of our life. Our health, family, and personal care should always take the topmost position among our priorities. We must practice equality in thought, word, and action without being biased towards any community, religion, or skin color. We must follow our principles in life and stay committed to them. Our lives must be a testament to continuous learning. And we must take utmost care of this planet - our mother earth if we want future generations to stay here.
These words are especially meant for all students in the world. ― Avijeet Das Author of Untold Diaries
After Six Months: Five Questions Toward Solving the Covid-19 Mystery (Nature Research Journal) Five pressing questions about COVID-19 that researchers are tackling.
For every insight into COVID-19, more questions emerge and others linger. That is how science works. To mark six months since the world first learned about the disease responsible for the pandemic, There are FIVE key questions that researchers still don’t have answers to.
![]() The virus (orange) attaching to a cell
"People who developed respiratory failure were more likely to carry one of two particular gene variants than were people without the disease."
–THIS WEEK's CONVERSATION– (summer schedule)
Our Global Leadership Community- Together
A Weekly CONVERSATION between School Heads and Senior Leaders #19
Maybe the most important CONVERSATION of all– talking together on the most pressing issues and dilemmas, openly and honestly.
NOTE: Our Thursday leadership community gatherings will continue throughout the summer months.
A REMINDER –A Shared Board Trustee and School Head Inquiry– A Collaboration Between The Big Questions Institute and AAIE* ![]()
How can board members move from crisis management decision making into generative conversations focused on guiding and supporting their schools into an uncertain future?
That’s the Big Question that will guide the inaugural Board / Trustee Virtual Retreat that kicks off on July 27.
*AAIE is responding to international community needs in aligning with BQI and receives no remuneration. A service to our international school leaders and trustees.
–FROM THE WHO and JOHNS HOPKINS CSSE–
A Final Note: The AAIE COVID-19 Briefing is provided to support your leadership for the school community you serve. We encourage you to use these resources in any way, shape or form that helps you, your communications and toward furthering close relationships across your community. – The AAIE Board |