Asking a Different Question: 

How Does Behavior Change Impact COVID-19 Outcomes?

Here, a hypothetical group of 100 infected people out of a population of 1,000, with 10% observing good safety protocols, leads to hundreds of infections and deaths after three months.

This simulation shows the effect on the same hypothetical group of 100 infected people out of a group of 1,000 where 80% of people wear masks and practice social distancing, which slows the infection rate to almost zero after two months.

Jumpa Lagi!  "See Each Other Again":

The Dalat International School Reopening Plan

Editor's Note: The Dalat International School Reopening Plan features a STEP concept (short-term educational program), recognizing both geographic separation and virus vulnerability.  Head of School, Karl Steinkamp and team recognize the work of fellow international schools around the world.  Also, take note of the clear messages about use of masks, giving the call to classroom teachers when face-to-face instruction is taking place. Also have a look at the Dalat approach to financial aid.  

Dalat International School recognizes that the benefits of face-to-face teaching and learning cannot be fully replicated in an online environment. Face-to-face instruction is best for most students. Therefore, the goal of the school is to get all students back to face to face school as soon as possible. However, the school also recognizes that this presents a challenge for some families. Some students may be away from school due to extended illness, weakened immune system, or immigration requirements. Dalat will provide a distance learning option for these students for at least the first quarter of the school year.

STEP is designed for students who are unable to return to face to face instruction with their peers. This may be due to being stranded outside of the country or to a medical condition weak immune system.

–THE NEWS of COVID-19–

Focus on the USA, Latin America and India

11,495,412 Cases World Wide

(Johns Hopkins CSSE)

FROM THE RESEARCH (Cornell University, Nature Journal)

Most People Never Show Classic Symptoms
Less than one-third of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 fall ill with respiratory symptoms or fever, suggests a survey of the hard-hit region of Lombardy, Italy, where 16,000 people have died. Researchers studied 5,484 people who had close contact with an infected person — roughly half got infected, but only 31% developed classic symptoms, such as a cough. As a person’s age increased, so did their odds of experiencing symptoms. CLICK HERE for research findings

A Grim Prediction for Latin America–500 Kilometers from an ICU Bed

In the last week of June, coronavirus deaths averaged more than 2,000 a day in Latin America and the Caribbean -- half of all recorded deaths worldwide, according to a CNN tally of WHO data. Most forecasts suggest the picture will get much grimmer -- with nearly 440,000 deaths expected across the region by October, according to the University of Washington. The head of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Dr. Carissa Etienne, said this week: "The region of the America is clearly the current epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic."

Latin American states have had dramatically different experiences with Covid-19. Uruguay, which has a well-funded public health system, embarked on an aggressive tracking and testing program when the pandemic arrived. Despite a change of government in the middle of the crisis, it has had a consistent policy on lockdown. Nearly 20% of the population downloaded a government app with guidance on the virus. Paraguay, which is much poorer than Uruguay, appears to have benefited from an early lockdown. It also enforced quarantine measures for people entering the country from Brazil, the epicenter of infections in Latin America. Elsewhere, the story is far less optimistic, especially in countries which have large informal economies. In Mexico, Colombia and Peru, nearly two-thirds of workers have no safety net beneath them. And their income has probably declined by 80% during the pandemic, according to the International Labor Organization -- putting even basic health care out of reach.

Crowded living conditions in poorer urban areas, where basic hygiene and social distancing are next to impossible, threaten the region with a growing tide of infections. As Dr. Marcos Espinal, chief of the Department of Communicable Diseases and Health Analysis at PAHO, told CNN: "In the barrios of Lima it's going to be very difficult to do social distancing."

All but five or six governments fall well short of the WHO target of spending 6% of GDP on health, he says. Peru, for example, spends 3.3%. Some Amazon towns in Brazil are more than 500 kilometers from the nearest ICU bed. (CNN)

Airborne Spread in Small Quantities

More than 200 scientists from over 30 countries are urging the World Health Organization to take more seriously the possibility of the airborne spread of the novel coronavirus as case numbers rise around the world and surge in the United States. In a forthcoming paper titled “It is Time to Address Airborne Transmission of Covid-19,” 239 signatories attempt to raise awareness about what they say is growing evidence that the virus can spread indoors through aerosols that linger in the air and can be infectious even in smaller quantities than previously thought. Until recently, most public health guidelines have focused on social distancing measures, regular hand-washing and precautions to avoid droplets. But the signatories to the paper say the potential of the virus to spread via airborne transmission has not been fully appreciated even by public health institutions such as the WHO. The paper, which was shared with The Washington Post ahead of publication this week in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases, comes as the WHO faces criticism over its coronavirus response, calls for reform and a U.S. threat to cut funding and withdraw completely. (The Washington Post)

A Mutated COVID-19, Increased “Fitness Advantage”

Evidence is growing that a mutated coronavirus strain, the main one circulating in the Houston area, is more contagious than the original virus in China.Two new research papers show that the newer strain is more transmissible, a possibility first suggested by a team of scientists in May. At the time, that suggestion was considered highly speculative by many scientists, including some in Houston. “A summary of the data thus far suggests that this strain has gained a fitness advantage over the original and is more transmissible as a result,” said Joseph Petrosino, Baylor College of Medicine chair of molecular virology and microbiology. “It is safe to say this version is more infectious.” (Houston Chronicle) 

Focus Remains on the USA

The U.S. death toll from the coronavirus pandemic neared 130,000, as surging infection rates in many parts of the country heaped more pressure on overstretched hospitals. The U.S. added more than 49,000 new cases on Sunday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Cases in the U.S. account for about a quarter of the global total of more than 11.4 million infections. (The Wall Street Journal)

Florida Doubles in Two Weeks

It took three months, from early March to June 22, for Florida to cross 100,000 new confirmed COVID-19 cases. It took less than two weeks for the state to go from 100,000 to 200,000 cases — and the positive test rate keeps rising. The 10,059 confirmed new novel coronavirus cases from Sunday’s Florida Department of Health update, the third highest single day total, behind Saturday and Thursday, shot the state’s pandemic case number to 200,111. While there’s been an increase in testing over the last week, there’s also been a massive leap in the positive test rate. The average daily positive test rate from June 21 through Jun 27 was 9.94%. The average for the next seven days: 14.47%. (The Miami Herald)

Overwhelming Intensive Care Capacities in Houston

Local officials and experts in Austin, San Antonio, Houston and Fort Worth have expressed concerns in recent days that increasing coronavirus hospitalizations could overwhelm their intensive care capacities, with some saying it could happen in less than two weeks. As Texas hit another record high Sunday, reporting 8,181 people hospitalized for the new coronavirus, local officials predicted cities could soon run out of space to care for the sickest patients. The state reported that there still are 13,307 available staffed hospital beds, including 1,203 available staffed ICU beds statewide, but hospital capacity varies greatly by region. (via Texas Tribune, San Antonio Express)

Intensive Care Units at 91% in Arizona

The Arizona Department of Health Services on Friday reported that ICU's are at 91 percent capacity after nearly a quarter of coronavirus tests conducted in the state returned positive. Almost 25 percent of the state's tests for coronavirus returned positive on Thursday, reported Axios. According to the DHS' website, 1,520 ICU beds were occupied, leaving only 156 beds still available. The state reported over 4,000 new cases on Friday and 31 new deaths. Arizona's DHS website shows that more than 91,858 confirmed cases in total have been recorded in the state and over 1,780 deaths. (via Newsweek)

India Moves to #3

India has passed Russia as the country with the third-highest number of coronavirus cases in the world after recording a record number of cases for one day. The health ministry added 23,000 new cases on Monday, taking India’s total to 697,000 and almost 20,000 deaths. On Sunday India racked up nearly 25,000, its highest total for one day. The increases took India past Russia as the third highest total in the world behind Brazil with 1.6 million cases and the United States with 2.88 million. (via The Guardian)

Israel in State of Emergency with COVID-19

Israel is in a state of emergency due to a resurgent coronavirus outbreak, and additional steps are needed to try to stem the spread, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday. The cabinet will reconvene within the coming day to decide on new restrictions and will present a plan within the next few days to address the economic challenges the pandemic is posing, he said at the opening of the weekly cabinet meeting. (via Bloomberg News)

A Week of Sharp Increases in Iran

Iran recorded its highest number of deaths from COVID-19 within a 24-hour period, official health ministry figures showed on Sunday. The 163 deaths reported on Sunday exceed the previous record from last Monday, when the health ministry reported 162 deaths in a day. The Islamic Republic has recorded a total of 11,571 deaths and 240,438 infections from the coronavirus, health ministry spokeswoman Sima Sadat Lari said in a statement on state TV. There have been 201,330 recoveries, she said. The number of new daily infections and deaths has increased sharply in the last week following the gradual lifting of restrictions that began in mid-April. Iranians who do not wear masks will be denied state services and workplaces that fail to comply with health protocols will be shut for a week, President Hassan Rouhani said on Saturday as he launched new measures to try to curb the coronavirus. (Yahoo News)

Peru is Now Fifth Highest

Peru on Sunday jumped past 300,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19, the fifth-highest in the world, as the Andean nation of nearly 33 million people slowly reopens its battered economy. The South American copper producer, which locked down in March against the virus but struggled to enforce a nationwide quarantine in the face of rising economic hardship, trails only Brazil in the region in terms of case numbers. Peru's death toll from the virus now stands at 10,589, the 10th-highest in the world, according to Reuters calculations. President Martín Vizcarra's government has eased restrictions this month to allow economic growth to revive, including the key mining sector. Peru is the world's second-largest producer of copper. Coronavirus cases rose by 3,638 on Sunday to 302,718, although new daily cases have slowed from peak levels in May and June. Health experts fear a potential flare-up, however, with more people on the streets as the lockdown eases.  (US News and World Report)

University of Southern California Goes Another Way

Amid the alarming surge in coronavirus spread, USC announced it will no longer bring all undergraduates back to campus for the fall semester and will move to mainly online classes, reversing an earlier decision to welcome students back for a hybrid model. The decision, announced by Provost Charles Zukoski late Wednesday, came the same day Gov. Gavin Newsom announced tougher restrictions on indoor activities. Zukoski recommended that students not return to campus for the semester and instead continue their education online. “The once-in-a-century COVID-19 pandemic has altered every aspect of our lives — the way we interact, work, and socialize — and with each new permutation of the pandemic, we must find ways to thrive,” Zukoski wrote in a letter to students. Given the continuing safety restrictions and limited densities permissible on campus, our undergraduate students primarily or exclusively will be taking their courses online in the fall term,” he said. “On-campus housing and activities will be limited.” Only 10% to 20% of courses during the fall semester will be conducted in person and on campus. These courses include certain labs, studios and performance classes, and research studies that require hands-on work. (Los Angeles Times)

After Six Months: 

Five Questions Toward Solving the Covid-19 Mystery

(Nature Research Journal)

–THIS WEEK's CONVERSATION– (summer schedule)

A REMINDER

–A Shared Board Trustee and School Head Inquiry–

A Collaboration Between

The Big Questions Institute and AAIE*

That’s the Big Question that will guide the inaugural Board / Trustee Virtual Retreat  that kicks off on July 27.

Homa Tavangar and Will Richardson, founders of The Big Questions Institute, created this unique opportunity in response to the growing need to align Boards to the monumental challenges and big thinking on education that school leaders have been confronting since the pandemic, to move beyond crisis management to meaningful change. The retreat will offer fresh tools to help implement strategic foresight, ask tough questions, and elucidate clear commitments.

Enrollment is limited so that participants will have opportunities to share ideas in small groups, and take advantage of generative learning from leaders around the world. In addition to a transformative approach to leadership, the opportunity to share ideas with Board members from top schools in diverse countries is unique.

AAIE members-Board Trustees and school heads can receive 20% off the cost of the retreat  (as a team) by entering the coupon code AAIE20 at registration. Please visit the Virtual Retreat site for full details.

*AAIE is responding to international community needs in aligning with BQI and receives no remuneration.  A service to our international school leaders and trustees.   

–FROM THE WHO and JOHNS HOPKINS CSSE–

A Final Note: The AAIE COVID-19 Briefing is provided to support your leadership for the school community you serve. We encourage you to use these resources in any way, shape or form that helps you, your communications and toward furthering close relationships across your community.  – The AAIE Board